Philippine Election Upsets: Surveys Miss the Mark

The 2025 Philippine senatorial elections saw surprising results, defying pre-election surveys. Candidates like Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan significantly outperformed expectations, while others fell short. Professor Ranjit Rye of OCTA Research noted that "20% of our voting population will only decide on the day of the election." This highlights the limitations of pre-election surveys. The late endorsements of Rodante Marcoleta by Vice President Sara Duterte and the Iglesia ni Cristo also played a significant role. Dr. Mahar Mangahas emphasized the importance of voter choice, stating, "The voters, and who they believe is fit for the position, will decide the outcome." This election serves as a reminder of the dynamic nature of Philippine politics and the unpredictable nature of voter behavior. The close results emphasize the need for more sophisticated polling methods and a deeper understanding of voter motivations.