Morgan Stanley Raises China Growth Forecast, Sees Tech Sector as Key Driver

Amidst Global Uncertainty, Morgan Stanley Sees Promising Future for China's Economy SINGAPORE, June 5, 2025 – Against a backdrop of global economic uncertainty, Morgan Stanley has revised its forecast for China's economic growth upward. Laura Wang, the firm's chief China equity strategist, spoke with People's Daily about this positive outlook. "We've increased our GDP growth forecast for China for this year and next," Wang stated. "For 2025, we're projecting 4.5% growth, up from our previous forecast of 4.2%." Wang attributes this increase to several factors. First, the return on equity (ROE) for Chinese equities has significantly improved. Second, there's been a de-escalation of geopolitical tensions, boosting investor confidence. "Global investors are rebuilding their confidence in long-term structural and thematic opportunities in China," she noted, particularly in the technology sector. The interview also touches upon the impact of global trade volatility. While acknowledging external shocks affecting many countries, Wang emphasizes China's unique position. The recent Geneva joint statement between the US and China signaling de-escalation of trade disputes is a positive catalyst, she explains. The strengthening of the Chinese Yuan against the US dollar is another positive development. Morgan Stanley's upward revision of its index targets for Chinese equities reflects this positive outlook. The firm's increased confidence in China's long-term growth trajectory is a significant development in the global financial landscape.